“This is the most unpredictable governor’s race I can remember.”
This is what Palo Alto City Councilmember and former Mayor Patrick Burt said as he is one of many anxious voters closely watching the polls of this year’s California gubernatorial race.
With California Governor Gavin Newsom maxing out the second of his two four-year terms, his seat leading the state government is up for grabs. The gubernatorial primary election currently consists of eight viable candidates: six Democrats and two Republicans.
The Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act, which took effect in 2011, established that only the two candidates receiving the most votes during the primary election will continue into the general election, regardless of political affiliation.
Much of the uncertainty residents are feeling comes from the conflict involving U.S. representative Eric Swalwell. Initially the leading Democratic candidate, Swalwell dropped out in April following sexual assault allegations, leaving behind an abundance of Democratic candidates fighting for a chance of getting into the general election.
With Democratic votes being split among six candidates and an unclear dominance, some are worried that no Democrat will make it to the general election ballot, despite California being a longtime Democratic stronghold.
According to Palo Alto High School history teacher Caitlin Drewes, the Republican candidates have the advantage of splitting the Republican vote just two ways.
“This race is really nerve wracking because … for a long time [this year], the top two have been the two Republican candidates, since there were so many Democrats in the race that the votes were getting split,” Drewes said.
To make matters more uncertain, Newsom has not followed through on endorsing any particular Democratic candidate, increasing voter discretion and fragmentation.
As of May 10, polling from KStrat surveying over 900 voters found that while Xavier Becerra is the leading Democrat with 20% of the votes, a President Donald Trump-endorsed Republican, Steve Hilton, is ahead at 22% of the votes. The rest of the race is relatively close with the next two candidates, a Democrat and Republican, at 14% and 13%.
According to Burt, the governor of California is one of the most powerful state governors in the country. California is at the forefront of innovation in technology, contributes the most money in taxes to the United States government out of any state, and has a higher GDP than 192 countries at $4.52 trillion. It is the governor’s job to propose and manage the state’s budget, allowing political ideology to influence the agenda of California which in turn can affect other US states. For example, many states have followed California’s climate regulations instead of the federal government’s.“The governor, for one thing, proposes the budget,” Burt said. “Then he sets the agenda of the state by his political stature, as much as the actual legal authority of the governor.”
Burt, also a board member of the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority, said that a majority of the funds that local communities around the Bay Area receive for operations and special projects come from state funds, which the governor controls. Specifically, these projects include affordable housing on the county level, healthcare, transportation and climate initiatives.
According to Burt, Silicon Valley heavily contributes to these funds.“Our region is a massive contributor to the California state budget,” Burt said. “Our tech economy contributes a big portion of the state’s income from corporate income tax, personal income taxes and capital gains from individuals. It’s a big revenue source for the state.”
Thus, the impacts of the results of the upcoming election on the Bay Area will heavily revolve around the tech industry. Drewes said that because of how the Bay Area is a stronghold for technological advancements, the elected governor will have significant influence over technological innovation in the state.
“We’re in the middle of the Silicon Valley AI [artificial intelligence] revolution that is happening,” Drewes said. “That’s going to be a big component of what they [the next California governor] have to manage and think about. Depending on who is elected, we could see very different outcomes.”
Democratic candidate Matt Mahan is one example of how election outcomes can shape policy. Currently the mayor of San Jose, Mahan is endorsed by former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo and Joe Lonsdale, the co-founder of AI data analytics company Palantir. The company was found to have provided license plate data analysis services to the federal government’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement, according to The Guardian.
This brings up immediate concerns involving the recent controversies with ICE, especially when candidates have ties to surveillance technology and are inclined to expand its implementation.
Over in Mountain View, police uncovered that many of their cameras were being accessed without authorization by federal law enforcement like ICE, which sparked a concern about privacy in local communities according to a Palo Alto Online article.
The stark differences in how each candidate would address issues like these is what makes this election so consequential. Given access to license plate readers, Palintir could obtain information about all people living in the United States.
A large amount of funding coming from California’s government goes into subsidizing housing for the homeless. In Palo Alto, planned transitional housing projects on San Antonio Road to resolve homelessness heavily depend on this funding.
Burt said that the Democratic candidates are far more focused on continuing these kinds of programs, yet within the Democratic party, there are still varying opinions. He hopes that the future elected governor will focus on continuing to pursue programs that address homelessness and other social issues.
“Sustaining the funding levels that we have been relying on is the biggest thing,” Burt said. “Governor Newsom was … supporting a lot of that funding, but he’s more recently pulled back some of those funds.”
California’s primary system will define the future of the state, affecting not just California residents but those beyond its borders.
“California is an incredibly powerful state, both in population, but also in wealth,” Drewes said. “There’s often a saying: the way California goes is the way the country goes.”
